As hodlers prepare for “Septembear,” bitcoin risks having its worst August since 2015.
Because September is often a “red” month, there are serious concerns about the future for monthly periods.
Bitcoin’s (BTC) performance in August is expected to be the worst since the bear market of 2015, and next month might be much worse.
According to data from the on-chain analytics tool Coinglass, the month of August for BTC/USD was the worst in seven years.
BTC price declines of 5.9% on average in September.
Bitcoin hodlers are naturally scared after two significant drops in the price of BTC in recent weeks, but historically, September has performed even worse than August.
Since 2015, when the pair showed an 18.67% red monthly candle, the BTC/USD pair has lost the most money in August, falling 14% to $20,000 this month.
When it comes to the performance of the BTC price, subsequent years have shown that August may be a mixed bag; for instance, in 2017, the biggest cryptocurrency gained almost 65% in a bullish record.
But when it comes to the likely price direction, September has left no one in the dark. Since Coinglass statistics have been kept in 2013, average losses have been approximately 6%, making January already well-known as a “red” month for Bitcoin.
This time, experts’ grim predictions are the result of a combination of macro instability and custom.
Trader Josh Rager put it this way: “Equities market isn’t looking good right now therefore this drop on $BTC is a reflection on that.” As Bitcoin challenged $20,000 support.
“Historically speaking, September has not been a wonderful month. There may be a slump at this point, which presents a buying opportunity for the months to come. I’ll be a long-term spot buyer for around $20k.”
Rager was carrying on a discussion on the chance that creditors who will eventually get the bitcoins through the Mt. Gox rehabilitation procedure would sell them in bulk after an eight-year delay. Many people, as mentioned, think that such an incident won’t happen, despite unfounded suspicions to the contrary.
“Really awful” looking monthly chart
Concerned analysts focused on whether Bitcoin could escape having its monthly candle end below $20,000 as the month came to a conclusion.
If it didn’t, BTC/USD would be right behind June in terms of lows that haven’t been on the chart before the end of 2020.
Worse worse, a similar occurrence would trigger a snowball sell-off, worried Galaxy Trading over the weekend on Twitter.
It said that day, “On a monthly TF things appear extremely awful.”
“The next major support level is at least 14k, so if the monthly candle closes below 20k in three days, a major sell-off below that level might result. The rationale is that a closure below 19900 indicates a bearish engulfing candle, which is quite dangerous in a large TF.”
According to Caleb Franzen, senior market analyst at Cubic Analytics, a pivot zone that has been in place since the initial advance over that level in 2020 would be violated by a move much below $20,000 in the market.
“Using the monthly wick & close from December 2017, we were able to determine that Bitcoin was ready for a deeper retest of the pivot area. In 2019, this range served as the ideal opposition; in 2020, it served as a launchpad; and in 2022, it has been striving to serve as support “He gave an explanation of the monthly chart.